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Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper – March 2023

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The Bank of Canada was the first major central bank to hit the pause button on rate hikes in late January. Given the slowdown in inflation in the recently released January CPI, The Bank of Canada will refrain from hiking interest rates this month. 

That is welcome news for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages whose rate has risen 425 basis points in less than a year.

Variable-rate mortgage holders with a fixed payment have largely hit their trigger points if they bought in the past couple of years. While their monthly payments have not risen, many are not covering the higher interest costs on their mortgages. Hence their principal outstanding is rising. Little is known about how the lenders will handle that when it comes time to renew.

Housing starts also plunged 13% month over month in January.

Bank earnings are under pressure with higher taxes and capital requirements, and the federal financial institution regulator is looking to tighten mortgage terms somehow. More will be known in mid-April when the comment period is over.

Other sectors of the economy remain relatively robust. Labour markets continue to be very tight as the unemployment rate is near record lows, and job vacancies—though down a bit—remain high. This has boosted consumer spending despite inflation.

We expect a soft landing in the Canadian economy this year—a mild contraction in Canada in 2023 Q2-Q3. This is one quarter later than the Bank of Canada projected in their most recent Monetary Policy Report.

The economy is resilient, and inflation is falling, but the central bank is unlikely to cut rates this year. When rates begin to fall in 2024, they will remain well above the pre-pandemic level of a mere 1.75% for the overnight policy rate. Inflation in the decade before the pandemic averaged less than 2%. Over the next decade, inflation is likely to be higher, especially as on-shoring and the reduction in globalization will be much less disinflationary.

Preparing for the Spring Market

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Preparing for the Spring Market

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, the Spring market is anticipating a drop in home prices edging down approximately 6% from 2022, putting the average home price at $662,103 in 2023. The downward trend stems from rising interest rates and continued uncertainty in the marketplace.

In some cases, sellers have taken their homes off the market in the hopes that prices will rise again; meanwhile, potential buyers are biding their time for interest rates to drop. Due to this, home prices may continue to see reductions throughout 2023, while interest rates are not expected to drop until 2024.

While not a particularly buyer-heavy market, there are still individuals who will be looking to make a move, upgrade/downgrade or simply relocate.

For those households who think they are on the purchasing end of the Spring market this season, here are five signs from Home Trust to know if you’re ready:

  1. Your income is stable: For most first-time home buyers, purchasing a house indicates that you can make regular payments to service a mortgage. Accordingly, you should make sure you have a secure and steady flow of income to make these payments over the length of your home loan period. While this is often thought to mean that you work a full-time job, many self-employed Canadians also have stable incomes – and alternative lenders, such as Home Trust, are willing to listen to their unique financial situations.
     
  2. You are ready with your down payment: Having enough money on hand for a down payment is important because the amount will impact the type of house you can buy, the amount you need to borrow and the range of financing options you qualify for.
     
  3. You found an area you can grow in: Buying a house means putting down roots, so you need to make sure that you can buy a house in an area that suits your needs and lifestyle. You should also be able to envision yourself living in that area over the next five to 10 years.
     
  4. You feel comfortable managing your debt: Paying for a house involves having the discipline and commitment to stick to a budget. Take some time to track your spending habits over a couple of months to find out if you are comfortable setting aside roughly 30% of your income to pay for your mortgage debt.
     
  5. You have an emergency fund on hand: Owning a home means that unexpected home maintenance expenses, such as plumbing and electrical repairs, could eat into your budget. So having an emergency fund on hand to cover six months’ worth of expenses will allow you to cover these unforeseen costs.

If you feel that these signs point to ‘yes’ or you have more questions about purchasing (or selling) a home this Spring, don’t hesitate to reach out to me directly for expert mortgage advice!

Fraud Awareness Month

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Fraud Awareness Month

Did you know? March is fraud awareness month in the mortgage industry, which makes this is a great time to talk about title insurance!

As our insurance experts, FCT is a leading provider of title insurance and has some helpful information for you: 

For those who don’t know, title fraud can impact both homebuyers and homeowners. Someone whose title has been stolen, or who purchased a fraudulently listed property has few options for recourse – and many never imagine this could happen to them.

Industry experts are urging homebuyers to purchase title insurance as part of closing. Tim Hudak, CEO of the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) recently described title insurance as “the best safeguard” for homebuyers.

While title insurance is still an option for homeowners after they take possession, even years later, the best time to purchase a title insurance policy is NOW before an issue like fraud is discovered.

“There’s no reason you shouldn’t be getting title insurance, just like you wouldn’t buy a house without property and casualty insurance,” says Daniela DeTommaso, President of FCT. When a homeowner with a title insurance policy learns their title has been stolen, they benefit from more than just their coverage.

“The title insurance company also has a duty to defend,” says Daniela. “That means that the minute we find out [title fraud] has happened, we step in and we protect [the insured]. We pay all of the costs.”

Those costs include the legal fees to restore a homeowner’s title, which can be in the tens of thousands, as well as the costs of investigating the fraud and handling all the legal processes.

“It’s not only compensating for that significant loss,” Daniela continues. “It’s also providing that peace of mind knowing that someone’s going to navigate this process for you, and any costs […] having to prove that you are who you say you are.”

If you aren’t insured yet, don’t wait for your home to make headlines. Protect yourself and your property with an existing homeowner’s title insurance policy from FCT.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

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Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry CooperWhat the next few years will bring? Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper 

Update February 2023

Even bond traders and economists are stumped about what the next few years will bring. The repercussions of a global economy that stopped suddenly, shed millions of jobs and initially contracted 30% only to rebound in a flash on the back of free-money government programs are still being felt.

Predicting where the economy goes from here risks taking comfort in spurious accuracy. We’ve never experienced a similar set of circumstances. With hindsight, we now see that policymakers have made severe errors—taking interest rates to unprecedented lows and flooding the system with massive fiscal stimulus has precipitated global inflation; home prices in Canada surged 50% in the three years following the pandemic; variable-rate mortgages were much cheaper than fixed-rate loans as the central bank cut overnight rates to 25 basis points.

The volume of mortgage originations surged, with a record proportion, in VRMs. Now many borrowers have hit their trigger points. The banks allow the amortization of rising interest payments owed, easing the near-term pressure on borrowers. Those with adjustable-rate loans have seen their monthly payments rise seven consecutive times, with likely another rate hike next week. This, in addition to inflation, has reduced household purchasing power. Many are hoping that interest rates fall to pre-COVID levels soon.

Initially, the central banks argued that inflation was transitory. Many are betting that the old forces that worked to keep inflation under control for years would reassert themselves. The federal banking regulator is now proposing additional restrictions on mortgage lending to highly indebted households.

We hope for the best but must prepare for a slow return to 2% inflation. Home prices have fallen but are still up more than 35% from pre-pandemic levels. Labour markets are still robust, but a slowdown is inevitable. This will be a transition year with little likelihood of interest rate cuts. The Bank of Canada will pause soon to see if the lagged effects of higher rates further reduce inflation. Few believe the 2% target will be hit this year or next. The benchmark policy rate, now at 4.25% will not return to its pre-COVID level of 1.75%.

 

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